The results of the 2014 midterm elections are in, but what they will mean for education policy or students is less certain. Panelists from across the political spectrum met at the American Enterprise Institutes and discussed the election results, state education initiatives, federal spending, and what the future may hold for policymakers wishing to implement education reform.
Much of the conversation focused on K12 education, but the implications for higher education are also relevant. In the next issue of Connect, we'll explore what impact the elections might have on higher education.
The highlights, catalogued below, indicate some optimism for the next two years, but much more uncertainty.
Sampling of questions and answers from the panel:
- How much of this election was just a bad night for Democrats broadly, and how much of it is the unions having the worse night specifically?
Little: I’m not sure anyone suggested unions had the worst night. I do think this is a referendum on something much bigger than education. I would say don’t confuse the unions with the teachers. I think what happened should not be conflated with people not trusting their teachers.
Allen: I think we can conflate them. I think there is a bigger issue here, which is that we have a public and parents that don’t really understand the policy issues but they know what’s right and wrong. They don’t necessarily blame their teachers but they know something is not quite right and teachers are part of that. Unions used to say if you support your teachers, good things will happen; communities are not buying it any more.
- Democrats for education reform did win Tuesday. What did you take from those races?
Barone: The lesson for democrats is that pragmatists win. The other thing is that the unions could get themselves out of this tomorrow if they wanted to. They have started taking positions that aren’t even in the best interests of their teachers. They aren’t locked into current positions. There have been wake up calls since NCLB but it’s not clear [that] they’ve learned their lesson.
Hess: Interesting point - 31 states have GOP governors, in almost every one of those, unions have identified themselves as the enemy in a very real way. That doesn’t make sense. What’s strange is that unions have allowed themselves to be on weak footing by making it a black and white issue. They could have said that they agree with some of the Congressional candidates about not being crazy about what the Obama administration has done on waivers. Unions could have used some of that common ground to their advantage but they didn’t. If you read the web platforms of some of the candidates for governor, 20/35 called for increased school spending. The unions could have been on even terms with folks, who now got elected and have no incentive to grant hearings to unions for the next 4 years.
- In cases where purple state governors pushed hard on reform and won, where do they go from here?
Klein: They could run for President. That’s what I expect.
Hess: Its either Walker or Kasich going to Des Moines, IA. Kasich got humbled by a referendum but he came back strong and won huge in Ohio this year. Walker has shown he can hold down the throttle and really get things done. The most significant thing from these contests actually is that the message to upcoming republicans, which is different from education reform democrats, is that a republican won’t be caught in that two front war on education. I expect to see a lot of folks [starting to talk] about charters, vouchers, etc. They are comforted that the union target painted on doesn’t mean a guaranteed loss. Also, the more candidates take on these issues, the harder it is for unions to take them on.
- Pivot to DC. Republican controlled Senate. What are implications of Lamar Alexander controlling Senate HELP committee?
Little: Real opportunity to move forward with renewal of ESEA. Patty Murray could be good for the necessary bipartisanship middle ground if Lamar can prove it’s good for kids. As long as Republicans don’t get in their own way because they feel like their win demonstrates a mandate, there is potential for great progress.
Klein: Murray is going to try very hard to move ESEA for folks back home.
- Looking forward, lame duck session. Education Sciences Reform Act (ESRA) passed the House and was approved by Senate HELP and then didn’t move, same with Charter School Bill HR10. Will either of those move now, later, or never?
Klein: Most likely piece to move is the Child Care and Development Block Grant, currently waiting for conference. ESRA could move in lame duck. Charter bill could be a back-up if ESEA can’t get an agreement.
Allen: Lamar is a former governor, university president, secretary of education, this is unique. Should see more of him with or without Patty Murray. He’s a different style of leader and will be willing to go around to everyone to get support.
Hess: Lots of lost institutional knowledge in Senators and their staff leaving, will take a while to regroup. Also, Republicans are going to want to spend time on ACA which is also in that committee. It still won’t be easy to pass legislation and only really have 14 month time window.
Barone: ESEA passes next year, even with plot twists. First issue will be the budget: debate on student loan subsidies, prevent gainful employment regulations. That debate could “poison the bipartisanship well”. McConnell and Boehner put out an op-ed that talked about education, which generally means they intend to get it done. There will be a lot of uncertainty until the new folks get settled, and also because of the handful planning to run for president. All of this has to play out.
Hess: Part of the sticking point is that Duncan has no desire to give up waivers in next 8months. I think the administration will be fine riding the waiver train to the end of term and leaving it to the next administration. Even if it gets through Congress it has to get past a potential veto by the president.
Little: It can be done but takes time. It’s possible but hasn’t been done against a presidential election. Who are the moderate and the extremes? More extremes changes the tone of negotiation and makes it harder to find deals.
Klein: Staggered and grades ban testing could determine the extent to which the administration gets involved.
Allen: Democrats and Republicans just had a huge wake-up call in this election. Also, likely that strong governors on education will demand action and Congress can’t get in their way. There are going to be governors on the hill now asking Congress to follow them or help. It may lead to new agendas.
- What will the Department of Education do for the next two years?
Klein: Most likely piece to move is the Child Care and Development Block Grant, currently waiting for conference. ESRA could move in lame duck. Charter bill could be a backup if ESEA can’t get an agreement.
Hess: Not going to be able to convince smart, talented people to come in, no money to play with for initiatives like pre-k. They will be playing out the waiver train with Governors. There may be Congressional scrutiny on gainful employment and college accountability. Doesn’t look fun or rewarding.
Little: They do have good people and if nothing will happen in Congress then the administration is where all the work will be. Governors need them, lots of opportunity for them. Last years of administration are about doubling down on priorities. They want to create a federal/state landscape they can leave.
Allen: Tone will be different, [it will be one of] humility. Congress will call them out on anything the DoE does that isn’t directly in line with what they want. [It] will be largely a media game, but will be good for everyone.
Barone: Anti-Obama will be in education debate, not expecting much roll back though. There are changes and adjustments but no one is dropping or scraping. RttT effects will be around even after money because people stepped up and did them. States came up with accountability systems because of waivers that they don’t know yet, so they won’t get rid of them till they know them better. It’s a legacy to be proud of.
Klein: Staggered and grades ban testing could determine the extent to which the administration gets involved.
- Will there be a big push for education in 2016 as a main issue?
Little: [It] hasn’t played majorly since Bush/Gore. There is a possibility for interesting things in education in 2016, but it depends on the candidates. Good possibilities.
Allen: We cannot have a presidential election where education is not a major issue any more.
Hess: Republicans are going to talk about education in 2016 no matter what. For the campaign, if foreign issues, ISIL and Ebola, are still a concern those could take the front seat. Unless people are good on the economy and the international scene is calm, then education may be an issue.
- Will there be a reauthorization of HEA in 2015?
Barone: We should be expecting play through budget on HEA. Budget will be handled before policy discussion.
Little: Path forward is clearer on HEA, but Klein is focused on ESEA, so it will take a long time to get to.
Klein: It would be easier to get HEA through than ESEA.
Hess: You only get one of the big three: ESEA, HEA, IDEA. Lots of attention with conservatives on college funding, so HEA has a chance.
- We believe that the budget will become hyper-partisan. If the Ryan budget gets passed they will need reconciliation on ESEA and ACA. That is also a path that would be devastating for education issues through appropriations. What should we expect?
Little: Murray knows how to cut those deals and the possibility. Not sure fighting is good when it’s a political issue because it demonstrates a lack of ability to make a decision. Can we do something else that makes a difference for kids?
Hess: The well is already going to be poisoned because there isn’t much of a likelihood of a president cutting deals on the issues Congress is raising. Reality is education stuff will get caught up in larger political tides.
- What can Rs focus on to get back to kitchen table issues?
Hess: It’s crazy to say Pre-K doesn’t work or that you are against pre-K, it’s also crazy to layer K12 onto early childhood. It’s an opportunity for Republicans to challenge norms. In K12, Republicans can move from NCLB by addressing what feds did wrong while not ignoring what it did right. [This is an] opportunity to insist on transparency and comparability in space where fed can only write rules. In higher education [we must] commit to students not getting ripped but we don’t have confidence in fed micromanaging or in financial space. What does it look like to talk about transparency and holding higher ed institutions accountable for investments from taxpayers? [There are] enormous opportunities to address this in a way that speaks to real concerns for real families.
Panelist Bios:
Jeanne Allen is the founder and president emeritus of the Center for Education Reform (CER), where she currently serves as senior fellow. She is the vice president for K–12 programs with HotChalk Inc., and is currently working on the creation of Modern States. Allen serves on the Education Innovation Council for GSV Advisors and Arizona State University and serves on the boards of the Friendship Public Charter School Foundation and the Challenge Charter School.
Charles Barone is the director of policy at Democrats for Education Reform (DFER). He has led DFER’s efforts advising President Obama’s 2008 transition team, advocating for state reforms under Obama’s Race to the Top initiative, and setting DFER’s policy agenda at the state and federal level in areas such as accountability and testing, teacher preparation, and charter schools.
Frederick M. Hess is resident scholar and director of education policy studies at AEI. An educator, political scientist, and author, Hess studies a range of K–12 and higher education issues. He pens the Education Week blog Rick Hess Straight Up and has authored many influential books on education.
Alyson Klein is a reporter at Education Week, where she covers federal policy, including US Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, waivers, and competitive grant programs. She is also coauthor of the Politics K–12 blog.
Bethany Little is a principal at Education Counsel. Before joining Education Counsel, she served as managing partner at America Achieves, where she led a number of the organization’s most critical priorities, including their support for state and local superintendents, the Global Learning Network, and their parent engagement initiative.