NSC Identifies Fall 2024 Freshman Enrollment Data Error, Updated Report Coming January 23, 2025

By Autumn Walden, Editor, AACRAO Connect, Content Strategy Manager, AACRAO

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) has announced a significant correction to its preliminary “Stay Informed” enrollment report. The NSC has identified a methodological error that affected its calculation of freshman enrollment numbers for Fall 2024.

According to NSC Executive Director Doug Shapiro, the error mislabeled certain students as dual-enrolled rather than freshmen, leading to an undercount of freshman enrollment and an overcount of dual-enrolled students. This affected the October “Stay Informed” Report and the November “Special Analysis of 18-year-old Freshmen” report.

Correcting the Error

Contrary to the initial report that showed a decline, the NSCRC's subsequent research indicates that freshman enrollment actually increased in Fall 2024. The exact figures will be released in the upcoming “Current Term Enrollment Estimates” report on January 23, 2025. This report will provide a more comprehensive view of enrollment trends, as it encompasses nearly all higher education institutions and employs different methodological approaches to determine freshman numbers.

Next Steps

The NSC presented these data at our SEM 2024 conference last November. For enrollment management professionals relying on these data for planning and decision-making, we recommend accessing the January 23 “Current Term Enrollment Estimates” report when it becomes available. “We appreciate the transparency of the Clearinghouse in sharing their error and the adjusted picture,” AACRAO Executive Director Melanie Gottlieb said. “This unfortunate error highlights the complexity of the enrollment landscape in the U.S. and the need for stronger national data infrastructure and reporting practices. Higher education institutions and enrollment leaders need access to accurate data to adequately plan their enrollment strategies.”

About the Report

The Stay Informed report, initiated during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 to provide early enrollment insights, is based on data from approximately 50% of higher education institutions. In contrast, the forthcoming January report will present final and complete enrollment data for the fall 2024 term.

The NSC has expressed its regret for this error and is conducting a thorough review to prevent similar issues in the future. The U.S. Department of Education had previously noted a potential discrepancy when their financial aid data showed a 5% increase in students receiving federal aid, contrary to the preliminary enrollment decline reported by NSCRC.