by Tom Green, Ph.D., Associate Executive Director, Consulting and SEM
The 2016 Knocking at the College Door report from WICHE revealed some startling changes in the changes in high school graduates over the next 15 years. While the 2012 report foretold of declines among many of the regions of the United States and shifts in the ethnicities of our potential students, the overall projection is that most states will lose high school graduate numbers between now and 2031. Although there is an upturn nationally around 2025, the forecasted downturn after that is dramatic. In many states, there is little good news for enrollment managers when we look at the trends and projections. For those institutions who enroll largely white, non-Hispanic students, the pattern suggests shrinkage among college enrollments, either at the traditional entry point immediately from high school or years later, as these trends impact adult learner markets.
Mapping SEM
A closer examination of the trends requires that we dive in on the state level to understand how these projections may impact individual institutions. When looking at the Northeast and Midwest regions, we see downturns in every state east of a line that roughly bisects the country, running along the western edge of Louisiana north to Minnesota. The western United States, where population had been growing for many years, will also decline in many of the most populous states.
There is another map to consider. It is the one that shows where colleges and universities are located in the United States. When overlaid on the map of high school graduate projections, we can see that vast majority of institutions are located in states that will have sharp declines. Institutional budget models that rely upon enrollment growth to fund expenditures are bound to be strained (at best) or crash (at worst) unless we can apply SEM principles to the situation.
SEM relies upon data and research to inform decision-making. Looking ahead and scanning the environment, these demographic and geographic data compel us to make strategic moves to promote institutional health and student success. Combined with campus-wide input and actions, we can use these data to create a future for our institutions before we fall victim to what we can see as a potential enrollment and institutional crisis.
Right-sizing institutions
Another demographic projection is important. It is the projection of our workforce. As the high school graduates decline, the Baby Boom generation will be aging out of the workforce. According to the US Census reports, the largest cohort in our current higher education workforce will all pass the age of 65 in 2030. Most of our career faculty, staff and administrators will be retired or considering retirement at that time. Is this a golden opportunity to consider “right-sizing” the institution to make it leaner and healthier?
This is a tough question with numerous considerations. It assumes we may not hire career faculty and staff to replace those who are retiring. It also means we must consider program review as a strategic tool to examine the number and size of the programs we offer. These are difficult decisions but they may be the salvation of our institutions.
How do we as enrollment managers lead our institutions in these discussions? Will we be seen as alarmist or defensive about enrollment numbers? How can we partner with our academic affairs colleagues to start discussions about program offerings and scope? What will this mean for student life on our campuses?
SEM Leadership
While none of these conversations and initiatives will be easy, good SEM practice means that we must bring these issues to our institutions and take a leadership role in working through them with our institutional partners and colleagues. Without our leadership, we risk missing the canary in the coal mine that signaled danger ahead. With it, we can take a more confident and active approach to exerting control over our future enrollments and institutional health.
Gather with other senior SEM leaders to discuss this and other pressing issues at this fall's SEM Senior Leaders Forum at the AACRAO SEM Conference. The Forum, presented in two 90-minute session slots on Tuesday, October 31, will address complex topics with research and questions for discussion. The morning session, led by Tom Green and Susan Gottheil, University of Manitoba, will focus on the topic of institutional right-sizing in light of rapidly shifting student, faculty and staff demographics. How do we go about leading these conversations on our campuses?
The afternoon session, led by Stanley E. Henderson, retired Vice Chancellor at the University of Michigan-Dearborn, and WIlliam Serrata, President, El Paso Community College, will address student success and completion.
Participation in the Forum is restricted to SEM professionals with significant career experience. There is no additional cost for the Forum. There is a cap of 50 places in the Forum, so register early for the AACRAO SEM Conference, Oct. 29-Nov. 1, in Phoenix, AZ, to secure your place.