October 2024 - New LEARN Commission CPL Green Paper, White Paper Proposes a Wealth-Based Pell Grant, and Enrollment Data Reveals a Complex Landscape with Both Growth and Decline

October 2024 Eye on Research

Commentary

The release of the Change With Analytics Playbook represents a step forward in higher education's evolution toward data-driven decision-making. What makes this initiative particularly compelling is its collaborative approach, bringing together the Association for Institutional Research (AIR), EDUCAUSE, and the National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) to address the technical aspects and cultural and operational dimensions of analytics. The timing is relevant as institutions face mounting challenges in enrollment, student success, and financial sustainability. The key question now is whether this playbook can help bridge the persistent gap between data collection and actionable insights in higher education.

In related news, Liaison has released a comprehensive AI terms glossary, filling a critical knowledge gap for higher education institutions navigating the artificial intelligence landscape.

AACRAO Research Update

The Learning Evaluation and Recognition for the Next Generation (LEARN) Commission published its second green paper in October 2024, which examined the complex landscape of Credit for Prior Learning. This comprehensive analysis explores existing methodologies, key obstacles, and potential growth areas within the field. Rather than presenting specific directives, which is typical of AACRAO's usual publications, the document provides an objective overview to help inform the Commission's decision-making process. Through its thorough examination of current Credit for Prior Learning practices, the paper contributes significantly to the Commission's ongoing efforts to improve credential portability and student mobility across institutions. Those interested can now access the complete green paper through the LEARN Commission's website.

High School Dual Enrollment Survey
The AACRAO and National Alliance of Concurrent Enrollment Partnerships (NACEP) survey on high school dual enrollment was designed to shape both an industry benchmark and inform the LEARN Commission's work. It will remain open until November 1, 2024. While the final reminder email was delivered to member inboxes on October 28, there's still time to participate. If you haven't received an invitation, you can request one by emailing wendyk@aacrao.org.

Current Higher Education Research and Related Topics

The Changing Landscape of Course Materials Examined in New Report
This annual Course Materials Report (download required) is based on data from VitalSource's partnerships with campus stores. It reveals a significant shift toward digital materials and the positive effects of Inclusive Access (IA) and Equitable Access (EA) programs on learner affordability and resource accessibility. The report examines the evolving landscape of course materials in higher education, focusing on learner purchasing behaviors and the impact of affordable access programs. Key findings include the following:

• Programs to minimize credit loss during transfers.
• Interventions to bridge information gaps for transfer learners.
• Efforts to foster a sense of belonging among transfer learners at their new institution.

Figure 1: Course Materials Market Share Over Time

Source: “Digital Education Council Global AI Student Survey 2024.” n.d.

New Report Focuses on Expanding Internship Opportunities
A new report from the Business-Higher Education Forum (BHEF) examines the critical role of undergraduate internships in facilitating the transition from higher education to the workforce. It highlights the long-term benefits and current disparity in accessing quality internship opportunities. The study emphasizes the growing importance of real-world experiences in developing durable skill sets, particularly in light of technological advancements reshaping entry-level work. Key findings include the following:

• In 2023, there was a significant gap between the demand for internships (8.2 million learners) and the available number of opportunities (3.6 million), with only 2.5 million considered quality internships.
• Access to internships is disproportionately limited for individuals of color, first-generation learners, community college learners, and financially vulnerable populations.
• The shortage of quality internships poses challenges for employers seeking candidates with relevant skills and real-world experience for early-career positions.
• As AI and other technologies transform entry-level work, the importance of internships in developing and demonstrating practical skills is expected to increase.

The report also offers strategies to expand internship quality and availability. Ways these goals may be achieved include:

• Target interventions with employers to increase internship supply based on employer profiles and motivations.
• Establish intermediary structures to support internship operations and facilitate employer-learner matching.
• Develop diverse internship models to meet the varying needs of employers and learners.
• Create industry-recognized standards for quality internships through rigorous evaluation and consensus building.

The Media May Be Wrong About Declining Faith in Higher Education
An article from New America challenges the prevailing narrative of declining public support for higher education in the United States. It argues that recent polling data (including recent Gallup poll data) on Americans' attitudes toward institutions of higher learning has been misinterpreted, failing to account for broader trends of institutional distrust and overlooking important demographic and economic factors. The report contends the decreasing confidence in higher education is part of a larger pattern of diminishing trust in various institutions. However, institutions of higher education still remain among the most trusted. Figure 2. Key points include the following:

• Public opinion polls often conflate attitudes toward higher-education institutions with the perceived value of attending college.
• Political polarization has increasingly influenced perceptions of higher education.
• Declining enrollment is primarily due to demographic shifts and economic factors, rather than a decreased interest in college education.
• Americans still strongly support government investment in making higher education more affordable.
• Despite concerns, most parents still prefer their children to pursue some form of postsecondary education.

Figure 2: Trust in American Institutions

Source: “Americans Have Not Actually Turned Against Higher Education Like the Media Says.” n.d. New America.

Report Examines the Growth of Online STEM Lab Experiences
A report from Science Interactive examines the state of online and on-campus science labs in higher education, focusing on enrollment trends, challenges, and the effectiveness of various lab modalities. It highlights the shift toward online learning in STEM disciplines and explores strategies for delivering authentic lab experiences to support learner success across different learning environments. Key points include the following:

• Enrollment in online lab courses is growing, while on-campus lab enrollment is declining; administrators are planning to increase online lab offerings.
• The primary challenge identified across all modalities is learner preparedness and confidence, despite the widespread use of pre-lab assignments.
• A combination of hands-on labs and virtual simulations is considered most effective for learner engagement and learning outcomes in online lab courses.

Support Services and Their Relationship to Stop-Out Learners Examined
The 2024 “Listening to Learners” study by Tyton Partners reveals a significant awareness gap among college learners regarding available support services. Stop-outs are particularly uninformed. Research suggests that increased awareness of support resources correlates with higher persistence rates in higher education. Institutional leaders are advised to improve communication strategies to bridge this gap and enhance student success. Key findings and recommendations include the following:

• Only about half of surveyed learners knew about common support services, such as academic advising and mental health counseling.
• Learners who had stopped out showed lower awareness levels of common support services.
• Some groups, including online learners and learners with disabilities, demonstrated less familiarity with relevant support offices.
• Streamlining communication, increasing awareness of all resources, and addressing student safety concerns are recommended actions for institutions.
• Understanding financial aid plays a crucial role in enrollment decisions, especially for learners who have previously stopped out.

New Research Shows Importance of College Rankings Is Less Important than Assumed
Recent research from the Art & Science Group reveals college rankings play a less significant role in learners' decision-making processes than commonly assumed. The study surveyed over 4,000 high school seniors. It found approximately 10% of college-bound learners who consult rankings expressed concern about specific institutional rankings. Results indicate a shift toward a more nuanced approach to college selection, where rankings serve primarily as an informational tool rather than a decisive factor. Key findings include:

• Only 60% of those surveyed used college rankings.
• Among those who consulted rankings, about 33% used them mainly to gather general institutional information.
• Findings suggest a declining influence of traditional ranking systems, particularly U.S. News & World Report, as learners adopt a more sophisticated approach to college selection.

White Paper Proposes a Wealth-Based Pell Grant
A white paper from The Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS) and Higher Education, Race, and the Economy (HERE) Lab presents a critical analysis of federal student financial aid in the United States. The paper highlights how current income-based formulas inadequately address wealth inequality and its intersection with racial disparities in higher education financing. A novel Supplemental Wealth-Based Pell Grant program was proposed to complement existing financial aid structures that would help eliminate racial disparities in learner-loan borrowing, particularly benefiting Black and Latine learners who disproportionately come from lower-wealth backgrounds. Key findings include the following:

• Data indicates significant family wealth disparities among FAFSA filers; over 33% of Black students and 25% of Latine students fall into the lowest-wealth quintile, compared to 15% of White students. Figure 3.
• Learners from lower-wealth backgrounds face higher borrowing rates and more challenging loan-repayment trajectories.
• After 12 years, students in the bottom family wealth quintile still owe 70% of their undergraduate loans.
• Using a $500 family wealth threshold, the proposed Wealth-Based Pell Grant could enable approximately 85% of qualifying students to attend their first year of college debt-free, potentially almost doubling the percentage of Black students (from 27% to 50%) attending without debt.

Figure 3: Percent of students in each quintile of family wealth, by race

Source: Smith, Christian Michael, Laura T. Hamilton, Charlie Eaton, Higher Education, Race, and the Economy (HERE) Lab, Institute for College Access & Success (TICAS), Lumina Foundation, and Arnold Ventures. 2024. “A Supplemental Wealth-Based Pell Grant: How to Meet Unaddressed Need and Close Racial Gaps in Student Loan Borrowing.”

Employee Preferences in Higher Education Examined
A report from the TIAA Institute and the College and University Professional Association for Human Resources (CUPA-HR) (infographic also available) examines what higher education employees value most in their jobs. This information is relevant to the contemporary post-COVID landscape, in which higher education institutions confront significant retention challenges. Approximately 16% of full-time employees and 19% of staff and professional employees are at risk of departure within two years. This comprehensive analysis examines employee preferences and values across different demographic segments to address retention concerns in higher education. Key findings include the following:

• Retirement savings plans, health insurance, and paid time off are the most valued benefits, rated as top three priorities by 58%, 56%, and 47% of employees, respectively.
• Salary and benefits were ranked in the top three important job features. However, no single job feature was cited as important by more than half of employees. They were cited by less than half of employees (44% and 40% respectively).
• Employees at risk of turnover notably place a higher emphasis on workplace culture (37% versus 24%) and salary (56% versus 42%), compared to their more stable counterparts.

Survey Examines Role of High School Counselors in College Admissions
A new report from appily.com details a comprehensive global survey of 1,519 high school counselors. It examines their crucial role in guiding students through the changing admissions landscape while managing their own professional sustainability and well-being. In the college admissions environment, high school counselors face unprecedented challenges as they navigate evolving admissions processes influenced by various factors, such as generative AI and direct admissions. Affordability remains a paramount concern for families. Key findings include:

• Counselors across different geographical locations and demographics share common challenges.
• The profession requires balancing multiple responsibilities while supporting learners exploring various postsecondary pathways.
• Professional burnout is a significant concern, highlighting the need for enhanced support systems and resources for counselors.

Study Uses Focus Groups to Learn What Reforms Dual Enrollment Learners Want
A recent study by the Community College Research Center at Teachers College, Columbia University, examines barriers faced by historically marginalized learners in dual enrollment programs. Through extensive focus group interviews with 97 Black, Hispanic, and limited-income learners across Florida and Texas, researchers identified critical areas in which additional support is needed to ensure equitable access and success in dual enrollment programs. Key issues relating to dual enrollment include:

• Early awareness and comprehensive information regarding dual enrollment programs to create enhanced academic planning opportunities.
• Knowledgeable advisors play a pivotal role in academic success and program navigation.
• Course selection should align with a learner’s long-term academic aspirations and professional trajectories.
• Virtual learning environments require dynamic, interactive pedagogical approaches to maintain learner engagement.
• Effective time-management strategies help balance traditional high school activities with collegiate academic demands.
• Financial literacy education and scholarship guidance are crucial for sustaining postsecondary educational pursuits.

Case Study Looks at the Benefits of Better Communication about Academic Renewal
An article in Inside Higher Ed details how Moorpark College implemented a text-messaging initiative in the spring of 2024 to inform eligible learners about their academic renewal program. The program allows for the removal of poor grades from GPAs under specific conditions. The pilot program successfully reached learners, with 50% of those contacted engaging and 25% completing the renewal process. Key findings include the following:

• 57% of Hispanic learners who received texts showed higher retention rates and enrolled in more units.
• The text-based approach allowed counselors to reach multiple learners simultaneously without requiring individual appointments.
• Participants showed an increased likelihood of enrolling in challenging gateway courses, such as English and math, suggesting improved academic confidence following GPA adjustments.

New Survey Describes College Learners’ Viewpoints on the 2024-2025 Academic Year
A report based on the Forbes Advisor Back to School Sentiment survey details how undergraduate students view the 2024-2025 academic year. A survey of 1,000 college students asked questions about various subjects, from course selection to finances. Figure 4. The lifetime financial benefits of achieving a degree come with considerable upfront costs. The widespread reliance on student loans, coupled with varying graduation rates, creates additional pressure for learners to succeed in their academic pursuits. Key points in the report include:

• About 50% of all graduates use federal student loans, with slightly higher borrowing rates among private institution learners than public university learners.
• The overall college graduation rate stands at 62.2% as of 2023, indicating that 34% of learners may face loan obligations without receiving the full benefits of a completed degree.
• Learners must balance academic achievement with practical considerations, such as career preparation and financial management.
• Mental health support and academic assistance emerge as crucial resources for learner success.

Figure 4: Survey Topics Overview

Source: Source: Carlton, Genevieve, PhD. 2024. “Back-To-School Sentiment: College Students’ Perspectives On the Academic Year Ahead.” Forbes Advisor. August 14, 2024.

Graduate Degree Value Eroded by High Costs and Learner Debt
A report from Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analyzes the complex landscape of graduate education in the United States. It highlights potential rewards and significant financial risks for learners. While graduate degrees generally offer higher earnings prospects than bachelor's degrees, rising costs and associated debt erode their value proposition. A new regulatory framework to address these challenges was proposed. It focuses on the Grad PLUS loan program. Key findings and recommendations include:

• Graduate program costs have more than tripled since 2000; median debt has risen from $34,000 to $50,000.
• 41% of master's programs and 67% of professional-degree programs fail the reports' proposed debt-to-earnings test.
• Significant racial disparities exist in graduate degree outcomes, with Black, Hispanic/Latine, and American Indian/Alaska Native graduates earning substantially less than White and Asian/Asian American counterparts.
• An in-field earnings-premium test and a debt-to-earnings test were proposed to determine program eligibility for Grad PLUS loans.
• Creation of targeted grant programs for socially valuable, but lower-paying, career fields, and increasing transparency about program outcomes beyond earnings metrics were recommended.

Report Outlines the Benefits of Education-to-Career Coaching
A new report from Strada examines the critical role of education-to-career coaching in addressing the significant underemployment challenges college graduates face. Research indicates that education-to-career counseling could benefit many learners. Over 50% of graduates were found to be underemployed in their first year after graduation. The study emphasizes quality education-to-career coaching consists of three key elements: guidance, timely information, and support. Yet only 20% of recent public four-year institution graduates received comprehensive coaching. Key findings include:

• Career outcomes remain a top priority for learners entering college, with employment prospects outweighing learning as the primary motivation for enrollment.
• 45% of graduates with bachelor's degrees remain underemployed after a decade if they do not pursue additional education.
• Transitioning from education to a career requires early education-to-career coaching and consistent support throughout the educational journey.

New Trendline Examines Community College Issues
A new Trendline series of articles from Higher Ed Dive focuses on community colleges. These institutions face many pressures, such as falling enrollment, budget challenges, and fallout from COVID-19. This has led to tough decisions about layoffs, budget cuts, and closures. Innovative solutions include free community colleges, housing subsidies for limited-income learners, hybrid state funding models, and partnerships for Head Start programs on campus. The Trendline series of articles addresses these and many other issues.

Research Quantifies the Employment Challenges of Formerly Incarcerated Learners
Research from the Prison Policy Initiative examines the educational attainment of formerly incarcerated individuals. Research demonstrates significant disparities between those learners and the general population. Most incarcerated learners have limited access to educational opportunities during incarceration. Educational barriers contribute to severe employment challenges postrelease, with particularly dire outcomes for those individuals of color and those lacking high school credentials. Figure 5. Key findings include:

• Former inmates are twice as likely to lack high school credentials compared to the general population.
• Over 50% of formerly incarcerated individuals possess only a high school diploma or GED; GEDs are more common and typically obtained during incarceration.
• College completion rates among former inmates are dramatically lower; only 12.5% earn a college degree.

Figure 5: Unemployment Rates of Formerly Incarcerated People

Source: Initiative, Prison Policy. n.d. “Getting Back on Course: Educational exclusion and attainment among formerly incarcerated people.” Prison Policy Initiative.

Report Examines Key Gaps in the Use of AI in Higher Education
A survey report (download required) from Liaison and Higher Ed Dive looks at where higher education institutions are missing key AI opportunities and where they are actively incorporating AI. A survey of 150 senior leaders focused on admissions and enrollment processes. Responses indicate widespread self-reported AI knowledge and implementation. However, despite high confidence levels, institutions may be overly focused on language models while overlooking other potentially more impactful AI applications in admissions. Key findings include:

• 85% of respondents claim high proficiency in AI usage for admissions and enrollment processes.
• Many institutions demonstrate a limited understanding of AI capabilities beyond language models and chatbots.
• Effective implementation of diverse AI solutions could be crucial for institutional survival, particularly given the current trend of weekly closures of higher education institutions.
• 80% of higher education leaders believe their institutional data isn’t ready to be used by AI.

New Enrollment Data Reveals a Complex Landscape with Both Growth and Decline
The National Student Clearinghouse Information Center has released new enrollment information. This comprehensive enrollment report analyzed fall 2024 data, which reveals a complex landscape of growth and decline across institutions. The report, which first originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, now incorporates detailed metrics, including demographic data, institutional characteristics, and a new Pell Grant recipient indicator. Key findings include the following:

• Overall undergraduate matriculation increased by 3%, despite substantial declines in first-year enrollment, particularly among recent high school graduates at four-year institutions.
• Pell Grant-predominant institutions face significant freshman enrollment reductions exceeding 10%, while certificate programs demonstrate robust growth at 7.3%.
• Demographic patterns reveal strong enrollment growth among minority populations, contrasting with declining White student enrollment.
• Learners from middle-income neighborhoods experience the most pronounced decreases in freshman matriculation at four-year institutions.