Predicting Enrollment Melt Among Community College Applicants

This study examines enrollment melt patterns in a community college campus, aiming to quantify the predictive factors associated with students’ likelihood of melting. Using a combination of survey and administrative data from applicants to a California Community College campus in Southern California, the author estimates changes in enrollment probability associated with various student-level factors, such as applications to multiple institutions and confidence in academic performance. This research aims to enhance comprehension of enrollment melt dynamics, providing insights that can guide strategies to tackle enrollment challenges in community colleges.