School-leavers who benefited from generous GCSE lockdown grading have been warned they face a harsh reality check when they receive A-level results and fight for a university place next month.
Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, said that 18-year-olds this year are the “most angst-ridden cohort of recent times” amid uncertainty over A-level grades and intense competition for places at top universities.
The cohort was awarded the highest GCSE grades on record in 2021, when exams were scrapped and replaced by inflated teacher-assessed grades.
The same group will be the first Covid cohort to experience a return to pre-pandemic grading standards in England when they receive A-level results in August.
As well as grade uncertainty, they face fierce competition for places at some of the most selective universities, which are predicted to increase their share of international students in response to funding pressures.
Prof Major said: “A perfect storm of factors – increased uncertainty over predicted grades, tougher grade boundaries, taking exams for the first time, and intense competition for the most sought-after university places – is making this the most angst-ridden cohort of recent times.
“We must do all we can to ensure students get all the support they need when receiving A-level results, particularly offering guidance to those who have slipped a few grades and need to make quick decisions about which university degrees to apply for in clearing.”
The proportion of A and A* grades awarded last year fell to 36.4 per cent, from a record 44.8 per cent in 2021. However, this was still higher than 2019, when 25.5 per cent of grades were A or A*.
Ofqual, the exam regulator for England, has strongly signalled returning to a pre-pandemic grade distribution for A-levels this year.
Mark Corver, a former director of research at Ucas, who now runs dataHE, said: “If they [Ofqual] follow through on this it would be a big jolt down in grades, larger even than last year.
“But 18-year-olds this year are holding the very high GCSE grades from summer 2021, and that seems to have shaped their applications with if anything a slight shift towards more selective universities despite the evidence it is getting harder to get in there.
“So very selective universities are likely to be in control on results day and a lot will depend on how they weigh up the difficult choices they face: trying to keep funding levels up while not turning away and reducing future demand from the core UK 18 students.”
Teenagers face disappointment because their predicted grades, which are used by universities to determine offers, are likely to have been more unreliable than usual this year.
Prof Barnaby Lenon, dean of education at the University of Buckingham, said: “Predicted grades, which are used by universities to determine offers, are always wrong – over 70 per cent prove to be too high. This year will be even more uncertain because A-level students never took GCSEs so schools do not have that data to draw on.
“What is more, many younger teachers have never had the experience of teaching to the 2019 grading standards. In fact, many have never taught the full A-level syllabus.”
He said that entry to university will be harder this year than last because of a rise in the number of 18-year-olds in the population and the risk of universities taking more foreign students.
He said: “Foreign students pay much more. UK students who do not make their university offer grades are less likely to be successful this year than last.”
Clare Marchant, chief executive of Ucas, the university admissions service, said: “Throughout the pandemic years, universities demonstrated great flexibility around offer-making. Now, in a more competitive environment, we are expecting to see a more typical use of clearing, more in line with pre-Covid numbers.”
She added: “There is increasing demand for places, but clearing has over 28,000 courses on offer, empowering students to make great choices and the vast majority of students using clearing are really happy with their outcomes. Ucas also displays a wide choice of apprenticeships from the UK’s leading employers.”